MRR movement + churn + expansion + contraction + retention + seasonality
↓Recurring revenue engineRevenue planning and revenue modeling
Build the revenue plan from what actually drives the business.
Set the operating assumptions behind the number, see the modeled trajectory they produce, and compare that outlook with what the business has actually realized. The model explains the plan. It does not rewrite financial reality.
- Drivers stay explicit
- Modeled stays separate
- Decisions stay human
Operating drivers
Stores12
×Traffic1,500
×Conversion3.2%
×Avg basket$74
Modeled revenue$42,624 / month
Financial planCarry the modeled outlook into planning
Illustrative model logic, not product UI.
Chapter 01
A target is not yet a revenue plan.
A top-line target says where the business wants to land. A revenue model shows what must be true before that target shapes hiring, spend, or runway expectations.
Recurring and driver-based models turn inputs the team can inspect and change into a monthly revenue trajectory.
Chapter 02
Keep every revenue state in its proper place.
Received money, won recurring revenue, a modeled outlook, and a scenario are not interchangeable. Keeping them separate prevents an assumption from appearing as cash already received.
ModeledWhat explicit assumptions producePlanning layer
CommittedWhat has been contracted or won where applicableCommercial context
ReceivedWhat has actually landed and been recordedRealized financial reality
ScenarioWhat a hypothetical change would produceAlternative path
Only received money crosses into realized financial reality.
Chapter 03
Model the drivers that fit the business.
Recurring businesses can work from MRR movement, retention, and seasonality. Operating businesses can plan from capacity, visits, transactions, units, covers, or loads.
The point is to make each business model visible, not force every company into the same equation.
Billable units × utilization × daily rate × working days
↓Modeled revenueStores × traffic × conversion × average basket
↓Modeled revenueCovers × average check
↓Modeled revenueHealthcare
Providers × slots × fill rate × payer-mix rate
Manufacturing
Minimum of orders, line capacity and labor capacity × unit price
Logistics
Loads × revenue per load × utilization
General
Units × utilization × revenue per unit
A restaurant and a SaaS company do not produce revenue through the same operating logic.
Stores12
×Traffic / store1,500
×Conversion3.2%→3.8%
×Avg basket$74
Modeled monthly revenue$42,624→$50,616+$7,992 from one changed assumption
Illustrative values show model logic, not a customer forecast.
Chapter 04
Build and retain the model in Planner.
Revenue models are saved to the organization, with one active at a time. Its assumptions and monthly projection carry into planning.
Availability and model-count limits depend on plan. A projection remains modeled, even when committed recurring Deals add context.
Product evidence reservedRevenue model in Planner
Verified product structureSaved inputs → computed projection → active modelNo seeded visual evidence used in this prototype
/product/revenue-planning-model.pngChapter 05
Read the outlook as a consequence of assumptions.
The projection shows what the current model produces. Change a driver and the outlook changes, keeping its operating logic visible.
Forecast-versus-actual review shows whether plan and recorded results move together without turning modeled values into reality.
Base assumptions
12 stores · 3.2% conversion · $74 basket
↓$42,624 modeled / monthChange one driver
Conversion moves from 3.2% to 3.8%
↓$50,616 revised modeled / monthObserved separatelyRecorded results provide the reality checkRealized results do not inherit the modeled value.
Illustrative assumptions, not a live forecast.
Chapter 06
Connect the revenue outlook to the decision.
Review the modeled trajectory beside cash, commitments, hiring, and runway before relying on it.
RunwayCal provides context. It does not choose the growth target or decide which assumption the team should accept.
Chapter 07
Test a different path without changing the plan.
Test a different growth assumption in Scenarios. Its cash and runway consequences remain separate from the active model and confirmed financial reality.
Product evidence reservedRevenue scenario comparison
Active modelHypothetical adjustmentSeparate scenario outcome
/product/revenue-planning-scenario.pngChapter 08
Change the driver. See what it changes next.
Build the logic, review the outlook, and ground the next decision in assumptions the team can explain.
A revenue target becomes useful when the drivers underneath it are visible.